It’s that time of year again when I lay myself open to ridicule and put my neck on the line by predicting just how well – or badly – Brentford FC will do in the coming season. I will also caveat my words by stating right up front that these words are being written on Wednesday 14th August, a full four days before the season opener, with plenty of time still for additions and subtractions to the squad before Sunday’s 2pm kick off time.
Three years ago, still on a high from our first promotion to the top division for 74 years my hopes were simply just about survival and our not suffering the disappointment and ignominy of immediate relegation back to whence we had come. After the relief and euphoria of our 13th place finish and the arrival of Christian Eriksen my preview for the 2022/23 season spoke with cautious optimism about the hope to establish ourselves as “an average Premier League team” and perhaps go a long way in a cup competition. My hopes and aspirations were more than met with an incredible ninth place finish with 59 points narrowly missing out on European competition. My positivity for last season had to be tempered with realism given the loss of Ivan Toney but after a season where whatever could go wrong did so we managed to overcome the loss of practically our entire first team squad at different times throughout the season by finishing 16th, 13 points clear of the bottom four but perhaps well below expectations.
To survive and indeed thrive for three seasons, challenge for Europe, never at any time fall beneath 16th place in the Premier League and have a player taking the field for England in the European Championship Final is surely beyond our wildest dreams and if you had told me back in August 2021 that this would indeed be the case I would surely have laughed in your face and just how ridiculous this all would have sounded. Before I reflect on the above and examine the chicken entrails it has to be said that even though the Bees are entering their fourth season in the Premier League it would certainly be inaccurate and tempting fate to proclaim that we are now an established top-level team as, quite frankly, any team outside the top eight is at risk of relegation given the strength of the competition.
Let’s look at the elephant in the room and consider the threat of relegation.
Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United all participated in a deadly game of snakes and ladders which saw them promoted with hosannas in 2023 only to be relegated straight away the following season – and quite frankly they all looked like nailed on certainties for the drop from the start of the season. It is well worth considering that the last time all three promoted clubs were relegated the next season was way back in 1997/98 when Barnsley, Bolton and Crystal Palace failed to stay the course. That indeed was the only other time since the formation of the Premier League that all three promoted teams were instantly relegated. Taking that statistic into account and looking at the relative strength of Ipswich Town, Leicester City and Southampton there are no guarantees that the three relegation places are necessarily earmarked for them all. Should Brentford continue with the downward trends of last season when they earned 20 less points, scored two fewer goals but conceded 19 more than the previous season then we will certainly be in for a tough and long season ahead.
The G-tech Stadium also ceased to be a fortress with seven home defeats, seven draws and only five wins to be wildly celebrated at the end of the game. This record quite simply has to improve as does the careless and costly tendency to give up winning positions, concede late goals and look increasingly fragile from set pieces and far post crosses. It would be easy and perhaps fair to blame the massive decline in achievement and in the Brentford ethos of being tactically flexible, tough to beat, outworking the opposition as well as being the masters of set pieces on the plague and tsunami of injuries incurred by the club.
According to the premierinjuries.com website the Bees suffered 29 injuries, 1,702 days lost and 217 games missed. Other teams also suffered, but given the size, quality and lack of depth in the squad they simply could not cope, particularly when star man Bryan Mbeumo was lost for three long, hard, miserable, fruitless and tortuous months after limping off at Brighton.
The injuries started early last season and never really let up as no fewer than seven first choice players were unavailable for the final game of the season in May against Newcastle United.
The key question is whether we will escape similar ravages next season or be able to cope better if we do?
As things stand neither of our much missed first choice full backs have kicked a ball in anger in preseason. Rico Henry is rumoured to be in full contact training and close to a return, which will be so welcomed as given a clean bill of health there is every chance that he would have been in the England squad for the Euros this Summer.
Aaron Hickey – poor man – has suffered a hamstring nightmare and has undergone surgery and is still not fit despite an absence of over nine months. What must he have gone through and when will we see him again?
As of yet there have not been any reinforcements in either full back position and as things stand it would appear that Kristoffer Ajer will deputise at left back until Henry’s hopefully more imminent return and the reliable Mads Roerslev will play right back (backed up by the tireless Ajer!) until Hickey is fit to return.
Ben Mee is back in training as is Keane Lewis-Potter who has much to prove this season. Both had average injury ravaged seasons last year and hopefully will prove their worth again.
Josh Dasilva is out for the long term with his cruciate injury and if ever a player deserved some good fortune, then it is he as he has barely been fit for well over three years now and his ability to make things happen is much missed.
I wanted to wax lyrical about our new club record signing, striker Igor Tiago signed out of the blue – the way that Brentford best conduct their transfer business – for £30 million from Club Bruges.
He made a debut to remember by scoring twice at AFC Wimbledon but, typical of the way things have gone over the past year, suffered a serious meniscus injury that will keep him out of action until the end of the year.
No problem, though, we have a pretty decent option in Euros hero Ivan Toney who can slot straight back into the team in his intended replacement’s place.
That is all very well but that could well leave quite a hole in the finances as the intention was surely to sell Toney this preseason whilst he still has a season left on his rapidly expiring contract.
There would appear at the time of writing to be a total lack of interest in him which on the face of it is surprising given his quality but in these more fiscally responsible times (well at least for some clubs) perhaps they are prepared to wait for him to become available on a free transfer at the end of the season.
How tough it must be to be Phil Giles or Lee Dykes when you have to respond to such rapidly shifting sands which can make all your pre-set plans for the summer redundant.
Earlier this week the enormously promising Fabio Carvalho signed from Liverpool for a fee well in excess of £20m and he will add flair to a team that is more methodical than lyrical.
Goals should not be in short supply given the attacking prowess of Toney, Carvalho, the still improving Bryan Mbeumo who – whisper it quietly – is about to commence his sixth season at the club, Yoanne Wissa who topped the goal scoring charts with a highly impressive 12 strikes last season and has proved to be an exceptional bargain scoring 26 Premier League goals for us in three seasons at a minuscule cost of around £8m, the finally fully fit again Kevin Schade and Lewis-Potter with Tiago as the cherry on the top when he returns.
What is far more concerning is trying to restrict the number of gifts donated at the other end of the pitch. Brentford turned into a soft touch defensively and that is just not in their DNA and simply has to be rectified.
Having a settled defence might help and it remains to be seen if the formation employed is 3-5-2, 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 which will probably vary according to the strength of the opposition and the players available for selection.
Ben Mee is a question mark after his injury layoff but Nathan Collins improved throughout the season and will hopefully continue to do so and avoid the costly aberrations that cost so many cheap goals against the likes of Everton, Wolves and Liverpool. An injury free season from Ajer also would not come amiss.
Mark Flekken improved dramatically as the season progressed and my fervent hope for him is that he becomes as able and proficient with his hands as he undoubtedly is with feet.
The midfield too could perhaps do with some reinforcement given the loss of Ghoddos and Baptiste but there is talent and promise there aplenty with further progress eagerly awaited from the likes of Damsgaard and Yarmoliuk.
There is also the Thomas Frank factor to be taken into account as the team is so well managed and coached.
A lot of the pundits are predicting trouble ahead and a relegation battle for the Bees but instead I see a reversion to the mean. Given a fair wind in terms of injury and perhaps a little of the good fortune that was so sadly lacking last season, a top 12 place is by no means beyond them.